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COMMENTARY
October 2, 2001
Once & future king?
"Been there did that is the Russian mantra when the Americans ask about deposing an Afghan government. And it didn't work they add. Their invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 began with a coup in Kabul against Hafizullah Amin, a previous ally who had gone mentally off the rails, imposing a reign of terror that was the Marxist equivalent to the Taliban's Islamism. They installed Babrak Karmal, a pliable nice guy". (An oversimplification.) Some of the soldiers the Soviets first sent in were actually greeted with flowers. They said they would stay only to watch; that only pro-Soviet Afghan forces would be used in fighting. But within days the welcome had worn off and there were guerilla attacks on Soviet convoys. The invaders were soon up to their hairlines in gore; their own huge casualties slight in the spectacle of tens of thousands they felt compelled to kill. In the words of one expert who served with the Russian army: "There are many different terrains in Afghanistan and they are all hostile." The idea of removing the Taliban from power is clearly among those whose time has come. It is the logical first step to getting at that part of Osama bin Laden's terror network which is hidden within the country. To go for him directly is to count on dumb luck. There is even some evidence the Taliban is collapsing under the weight of events -- unverifiable but plausible accounts of a large desertion near Herat of dissension within the command of withdrawals of support from various tribal warlords among the Baluchis of the extreme south the Hezaras in the trackless middle of the country and even Pashtun chiefs in the vicinity of Kandahar (the Taliban centre of gravity). The raggle-taggle Northern Alliance has been emboldened to attack the approaches to Mazar-i-Sharif in the extreme north and is crawling into positions nearer Kabul. Refugees including noticeably so many young men are fleeing conscription towards Pakistan and Iran. It is even possible that without a single American shot fired in anger before a television camera the Taliban could disintegrate. It is after all reviled by the great mass of the Afghan population. But then what? A total chaos; one in which the 13 000 troops which Russian intelligence assigns to bin Laden's private army might have more rather than less freedom of operation. Afghanistan is already extremely close to Thomas Hobbes's ideal for primitive warfare the condition of each against each and all against all. We do not yet appreciate in the West that the "optics" on this would be no better than for a direct bombing campaign. Mobs in Karachi and elsewhere already hold the Americans responsible for the catastrophe descending upon Afghanistan. Remember that in the absence of democratic traditions from long acquaintance with the tyranny of individuals peoples of the Middle East can't believe anything just happens on its own. The mob always holds someone accountable. That would be the Americans in this instance -- and more specifically the mysteriously ubiquitous George W. Bush. Hence the courting behind the scenes and now openly of Zahir Shah Afghanistan's former king lord of tribal lords deposed in 1973 and living since in pleasant Italian exile. Zahir Shah would probably make the most acceptable compromise leader within Afghanistan itself. Among his attractions he is Pashtun (the largest ethnic group) with a traditional power base in Kandahar -- which is to say of the tribe and citadel of the Taliban itself an "equal and opposite". He has not previously been directly associated with any of the factions within that Northern Alliance each of them freighted with more enemies than friends. The argument against him must begin with the observation that he was not wily enough to keep his throne while still in his fifties; what can we expect from him at age 86? This is no Prince Sihanouk but a rather sweet and dreamy old man whom the world has passed by. (Another oversimplification.) His sons and grandsons are creatures of the European vie en roses. He can offer a figurehead only leaving all the hard details to Western and internal tears and toil. He can thus only appear to be an American puppet. The appearance has been enhanced by his recent meetings with U.S. Congressmen and the parade of Russian and European "fixers" through his ample quarters. He has been meeting representatives of the various Afghan factions too and hatching a public scheme for an Afghan two-year sprint to democracy -- which is as naive as it sounds like American propaganda. >From what I know I can imagine the alarms going off within the mind of President Bush. As he put it last week with his inimitably lanky precision We are not into nation building. But there are some things you get into whether you want to be in them or not; and it is beginning to appear that the re-installation of Zahir Shah is just one of those things. It is a bad idea but each of the alternatives is much worse. Tactically Zahir Shah provides at least a crucial red herring a focus for opposition who is not literally American to serve as long as can be. To put it brutally he can be used as a stopgap. He is a way of buying time while trying to assemble a coalition from common interests in the countries around Afghanistan to secure the longer eventual peace. Democracy is something we hope can come to Afghanistan within the next two centuries not the next two years. What is required now is to resuscitate as much as possible the country's traditional structure of internal government a balancing of the complexly various tribal interests around a new central vacuum. It has never been a centrally-governed country; it has never wanted to be. The message that must be put to tribal leaders is We are trying to restore the pre-Soviet order, in which you and your fathers once flourished, and if we can do that, we'll leave you alone. In the meanwhile careful attention to the humanitarian imperative is what will win fairweather friends. Afghanistan needs food more than anything now and we must deliver it at risk to prove we're on the side of the angels. Zahir Shah must look like an American puppet whatever he does -- he is already after all an American puppet -- but if he arrives with quantities of flatbread mutton and mint tea the inhabitants of Afghanistan may be willing to overlook this. For a little while. David Warren
© Ottawa Citizen
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