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COMMENTARY
March 7, 2012
Truth & courage
Telling the truth is, in the best sense, a revolutionary act. It is disturbing, and divisive, and can be exceedingly unpopular - not only among those heavily invested in falsehoods, but also among those who want "peace in the family." That is how various ridiculous lies acquire the politically-correct aura. It is because there will be no peace if they are contradicted.And it is why, even though I am what could be called a "deficit hawk," my hat goes off to the new Spanish prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, now disturbing the peace of the European Union by stating the truth about Spain's budgetary intentions. This Galician gentleman, who commands the conservative People's Party, came to power just before Christmas after nearly eight years' opposition to the socialist prime minister, José Luis Zapatero. It was an interesting election. (All Spanish elections are interesting.) Rajoy was thought, by the chattering classes, to have blown his prospects by hanging fiscally tough, and mentioning "social issues," when there was a strong voice within his own party for tacking to the centre. By winning his landslide, Rajoy then became the media poster-boy for "meanness" - the man who threatens to break Spain's unions, generally get a grip, and deliver obedience to the EU's fiscal demands. (I have never understood how anyone could want to be a conservative politician.) His country's problems are not small. Zapatero blew the bank, as socialist premiers are inclined to do, and moreover delivered that most ecological of accomplishments: a shrinking economy. Such politicians walk the road to ruin, by consistently taking the easy way out. Zapatero could be counted on to sign any cheque, and capitulate before any other hard demand emanating from his party's most "progressive" factions; though reversing course whenever the other side became louder. He kept "peace in a family" that is now tearing each others' guts out in recriminations. Rajoy inherits not only the mess, but a public sector now accustomed to getting whatever it wants, promptly. The key issue he now faces is this. Angela Merkel and the boys have specified that the Spanish budgetary deficit for the coming fiscal year will be held to 4.4 per cent of GDP. The previous year's target had been six per cent, and the Zapatero government did not come anywhere close. Having had his chance to review the national accounts, Rajoy sees that "4.4" cannot be done. He has stated publicly that he can do "5.8," which is to say, a shave better than Zapatero failed to do last year. Like it or lump it. About one quarter of Spain's labour force is currently unemployed. And that is after a cosmetic adjustment, for by older methods of reckoning it is closer to one third. The economy is officially shrinking at around two per cent per year, against the demographic background of a rapidly aging population, from decades at one of Europe's lowest fertility rates, lately aggravated by Zapatero's social policies, which encouraged contraception, abortion, sterilization, easy divorce, same-sex marriage, and everything else that weighs "progressively" towards human extinction. Spain has been wilfully self-destructing, yet may now have reached the stage where, however old and tired, her people begin wondering if they should do something to pull themselves out of the death spiral. Rajoy's landslide victory gave some hint of this intention. Now, given the stagnant economy, the unemployment, and other indications of secular progress, such as high levels of consumer debt - in combination with entrapment within the euro currency system which does not let failing economies depreciate - it would be positively insane to raise taxes sharply, while putting many more people out of work. Greece, Italy, and other European countries have faced this situation. Over the years they found the answer was to cook the books. That worked for a while, but led finally to political receivership, with European Commissioners dictating the terminal dive into the ground. (Italy's surreal situation is more escapable than that of Greece, as I hinted in a past column.) Rajoy says that he will actually do that "5.8," come hell, high water, and angry organized "entitlement" beneficiaries. And you look at the man, and over his past, and you think, he just might. He will even enforce spending limits upon Spain's regional governments. His government confirmed yesterday that these will not be "optional." But note, not "4.4." That isn't possible. And declaring that involves telling the Germans, and the Euromasters generally, to stick it. The easy way out would have been to give lip service to their target; then miss it while continuing to live a lie. Rajoy won't do that. He will make his stand on the truth, and take the consequences. And that is where real recovery begins: in direct defiance of that culture of lying, that culture of death. David Warren
© Ottawa Citizen
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