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COMMENTARY
July 12, 2003
They lived
The Iranian regime survived the week. I was praying that it wouldn't. Wednesday was the fourth anniversary of a huge police attack on Tehran student dormitories that triggered much resistance. It was a red letter day for opponents of Iran's "Islamic revolution"; and across the country judging from Iranian sources it appeared that a civil insurrection was mounting through the weeks that would peak on that day. The regime appeared to be down to using only foreign non-Persian speaking (mostly Palestinian other Arab and some Afghan and other Central Asian) thugs to beat everyone up -- not only students but a broader and broader cross-section of the Iranian people making their opinion of the ayatollahs known at least through bodily gestures. It was not a complete wash-out but it was not a success. Even without direct e-mail and a survey of the Iranian weblogs such standard generally reliable sources of Iranian news as Radio Farda and Iran Va Jahan reported extraordinarily broad disturbances including the burning of Bank Keshavarz in Tehran violent attacks on several police headquarters and a bloody pitched battle at the University of Ahwaz. At one point in the day in Tehran alone there were at least seven large clashes happening simultaneously -- specifically in Tehran Pars Laleh Park along Karegar Shomalli Avenue and in four different public squares: Horr Enghelab Baharestan and Valli Asr. Cars were honking all over the city and drivers in several places did their best to prevent the regime's foreign goons (who travel on motorbikes) from getting at the students by blocking streets here and there. In one encouraging development reported by Agence France-Presse (other foreign journalists seemed happy to remain confined in their hotels obeying official orders) the "legitimate" police intervened to prevent these club-wielding goons from getting at students at the periphery of the Tehran University campus. Needless to say if demonstrations like this had occurred against the American occupation authorities in Baghdad our media would have presented 24/7 flood-the-zone coverage. The New York Times would have led with a three-deck capitalized headline across its front page. But owing to the extreme selectivity of liberal media coverage the story was buried in the inside pages where it appeared at all. And only Western sources were used so that the stories that did appear were extremely incomplete and misleading. (For instance the Washington Post and wire services appear to have the policy of referring to the regime's club-flailing goons as "plainclothes security officers".) Much better and timelier information was available from the leading U.S. news weblogs to where people who actually need to know the news are increasingly turning. In addition to Tehran there were riots or demonstrations in towns and cities across Iran including sit-ins and hunger strikes at all university campuses. But from what I can make out the regime not only did not fall but was not close to falling. For the first time in months there was in fact a show of force to protect government buildings by the regular police and army. It was a risk to call them out in large numbers but they were following the regime's orders for the most part. The Iranian military was also employed beating the skies over Tehran with helicopters as a way to intimidate the people. Details are still not clear but I believe the most effective step the regime took was a bold and broad midnight sweep on the eve of the Wednesday anniversary that netted many of the student leaders. At least five dozen of the more prominent are known to be in custody now. The combination of the boldness with the waiting for the most effective moment to strike suggests to me that the regime is neither as stupid nor indecisive as the more optimistic opposition sources have suggested. And by getting through Wednesday with less outward trouble than Tuesday the regime was further able to deflate and demoralize its opponents. The Shah put up a less impressive fight in 1979; in the end he wasn't willing to massacre his own people in order to stay in power. Whereas the recent ministrations of the ayatollahs' goons is communicating to the country that this time they can expect no decency whatever. While my heart is with the people of Iran my disappointment is not confined to them. The regional implications are as grim. This was also a week in which the ayatollahs again stonewalled the IAEA -- which wants to make more extensive and urgent inspections to check multiplying unofficial reports of Iranian nuclear weapons development. It is now clearer that the ayatollahs are with the help of Russian Pakistani and North Korean technologists very close to having nuclear weapons. This is the trump card they have been seeking to prevent external intervention in Iran and provide a plausible mortal threat to regional U.S. and Israeli forces. If the regime collapsed the threat could be removed peacefully. If it won't collapse the Bush administration will have no choice but to go in and destroy the nuclear facilities directly. When is a question for the intelligence agencies more than for public opinion; for the decision will not really be a choice. David Warren
© Ottawa Citizen
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