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COMMENTARY
January 10, 2004
Tilting the table
The scale of the American success in Iraq continues to be underestimated I think because President George W. Bush continues to be underestimated -- not only by his opponents but also by such friendly critics as moi. It now appears that at some moment corresponding approximately with the capture of Saddam Hussein but not depending on that capture the U.S. succeeded in "tilting the table" in the terror war. It had been tilted against them until that time. I use this awkward expression -- tilting the table -- to describe a phenomenon in politics and diplomacy for which I can think of no better phrase. It is something that can happen within a country within a region or in this case almost around the world. It might be caused by a single huge event such as the event of 9/11/01 which tilted the political table within the U.S. -- definitively to the right as it were. But except for a handful of reliable allies the U.S. remained effectively alone on the world stage fighting uphill. Or it might be a combination of events a cumulative change reaching a critical point. This is what the Bush administration sought to accomplish through the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq through the deployment of special forces in several dozen other countries and through diplomatic means even less visible to outside observers. It was not an application of sheer power for had it not been done fairly cleverly the consequence of the U.S. effort would have been what the leftists anticipated: America's enemies and especially the Arab ones would have united against her. Mr. Bush's strategy has depended on his outwardly soft and accommodating secretary of state Colin Powell as much as on his more ferocious secretary of defence. It has been a two-track advance across the map of the world's principal disorders a combination of left and right jabs of diplomacy and force of old and new methods of persuasion a true "Mutt and Jeff" operation. So that now the marbles all seem to be rolling Mr. Bush's way. Prior to the tilt they all naturally ran the other way. Some still do but have to be pushed uphill. The extraordinary new-year progress on so many fronts -- the sudden candour and co-operation from Libya Iran Pakistan and North Korea most spectacularly -- are supporting evidence for what has happened. Pakistan is the best example for suddenly the Americans have defeated Pakistani resistance after very subtle but continuous diplomatic pressure -- and done the equivalent of breaking the safe. The story of how Pakistani agents have played the central role in the proliferation of nuclear weapons has come to light been acknowledged and is now being acted upon; and at the same time Pakistan and India are sitting down to the most promising negotiations over Kashmir in the history of that conflict. On many many other fronts -- from the settlement of apparently isolated conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa to the disposition of prominent princes in Saudi Arabia to the newly co-operative tone from Old Europe to the silent operations which made it possible yesterday to take down the year-end Code Orange in the U.S. itself without incident -- the shift is visible. But the clincher to my mind is the gloom that has been noted by several analysts in the Al Qaeda tape released this week (which every qualified auditor believes to be genuine). It chokes with expressions of anger and betrayal indirectly acknowledging American success in isolating Osama bin Laden from his constituency. Though far from crying surrender it frankly admits and lists "misfortunes and calamities" from beginning to end. The tilt is still relatively shallow -- the table could yet be upset again perhaps by a huge stroke of terrorist luck. But for as long as this doesn't happen I expect the marbles will continue to accumulate in Mr. Bush's pockets. David Warren
© Ottawa Citizen
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