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SUNDAY SPECTATOR
September 16, 2001
Nine-eleven
The 11th of September may well go down in history not merely as a Day of Infamy but as the day on which we saw the opening salvo of the Third World War. And like the Second and I think the First it will prove to have been a necessary war. Our liberty has been put on the line in more ways than we presently imagine. The world has shrunk and it is no longer practical to share it with lethally-armed fanatics. But I fear the destruction that is coming will be far out of proportion to what we saw last Tuesday morning; that the cycle of vengeance stroke and counter-stroke is just beginning. The more I try to think things through -- though no human being can see the future -- the more I appreciate the magnitude of what has happened. The United States cannot be prevented from striking back against its enemy -- against its most immediate mortal enemy which is political (as opposed to religious) Islam. Not after a direct and devastating attack on its capital and its greatest city. But in the old semitic proverb The enemy of my enemy is my friend. We allied to the West and to America will find the most unlikely friends; and so will the likes of Osama bin Laden. >From Morocco to Pakistan the Arab Middle East is at the point of combustion. I do not think it is possible to repeat what we achieved against Iraq in 1991. While the circumstances differ from country to country the seeds of an Armageddon are sown everywhere. That whole region has been morbidly focussed for too long on the struggle in Palestine; for too long on its humiliation by the modern West. As we have seen at the epicentre on the West Bank we cannot expect rational self-interest to play a part in what must unfold. In particular Pakistan will explode when (not if) the Americans attack Afghanistan. And upon rejoining the battle with Saddam Hussein's Iraq moderately pro-Western governments in Saudi Arabia and even Egypt could topple into the most radical hands. We could march into the Middle East surrounded. The unqualified support which the members of NATO are now extending to the United States will come under immense pressure. When the consequences of the American retaliation become the issue instead of the suicide attacks that led to them the moralist posturing of European statesmen will come home to roost. Resentment for America is a significant factor today even in the politics of Western Europe. I fear that once again only Britain may prove a reliable ally. The opportunities presented to the West's greatest undeclared enemy the People's Republic of China are very large. There is the possibility against the background of war in the Middle East of an opportunist attack on Taiwan. This would directly involve the interests of Japan and South Korea (whose sea approaches could then be closed). This possibility cannot be discounted though I know it is discounted even in Republican Washington today. Even the short-term dependency of the West on the microchip production of Taiwan is overlooked. And the certainty of American intervention in defence of Taiwan may be discounted by the tyrants of Beijing. India and Russia the other two great "Third World" powers will be compelled to declare themselves either for or against America. The "defection" of either could place crippling constraints on Western resolve. We cannot reasonably predict what will be decided by either government in the heat of conflict; probably India will be "on our side" but it is Russia that still has the missiles. South Africa with its repository of so many of the strategic minerals from which our high technology is constructed may be overtaken by events which began small in Robert Mugabe's campaign against Zimbabwe's white farmers. No one can imagine how this all will fall out. But no nation no people on the surface of this earth may have the "Susan Riley" option of standing aside; any more than the thousands of innocent people trapped in the twin towers of New York had that option. I am "painting this nightmare scenario" obviously not to warn. My own voice is meaningless beneath the trumpet that has already sounded. I am only attempting to share with a few readers what the situation looks like to me trying to make sense of it while "searching through the files" of everything I know about the world today. The more I think it through the more I see how one thing must lead to another; how the consequences of so many evil acts must be resolved by God for we cannot resolve them. And if I am entirely wrong if peace can be maintained in most of the world of course I shall be relieved and happy. But one must look straight at the reality and describe what one really sees however "unbelievable". History does not repeat itself; only the mistakes are endlessly repeated. Such a Third World War will not resemble either of the others except in some of the universal effects of war on civil liberties. Those old enough to remember the fight against Hitler will remember the domestic scene the village atmosphere. Those of us put in the path of danger and those of us who are perfectly safe will alike be living each other's lives and dealing with mountains of petty restrictions. Few will be necessary; all will be enforced less by the police than by your neighbour. * * * * * All week I have been oppressed by these thoughts which began in the moment I discovered that one could not make a phone call to New York. There were people in Lower Manhattan at that moment who did not yet know what was happening. They found out by looking up; I by reference to the omnipresent media. Suddenly everything was falling from the sky. Reading the columnists from the U.S. I realize that I am not a war-monger. I feel sick at what has happened at what I think must follow; thinking about the bodies mixed into that rubble and of the mountains of bodies and rubble to come. We stand in the path of fearful events. For a little while we may have the benefit of calm before the storm engulfs us. We should use this time to make ourselves ready. We should pray to God for the best result. David Warren
© Ottawa Citizen
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