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COMMENTARY
March 6, 2004
Ashoura in Iraq
There was a moment of real optimism for most parties in Iraq on Monday when the Governing Council was able to agree to a new constitution. It contains many things that resulted from U.S. pressure -- most signally Western-style guarantees for the rights of women -- together with antithetical guarantees that Iraqi law will reflect Islamic teaching (as defined by whom?). The Americans with the support of the British and the U.N. are making the mistake of demanding too much. This is Iraq not even Bosnia; and they are forcing on the Iraqis the current bad Western habit of trying to overturn cultural traditions by law -- in a country where the respect for law does not yet exist. The mosque massacres in Karbala and Baghdad which marked the end of the Shia's Ashoura festival (a carnival of mourning for the grandson of the Prophet Mohammad who was himself murdered in a 7th-century succession struggle) -- intervened. The signing of the new constitution was postponed until yesterday in respect for the victims. Then yesterday the leading Shia members of the Governing Council refused to sign demanding further Islamicizing revisions and the withdrawal of autonomy concessions to the (relatively) sane secular Kurds. While the new constitution is just words on paper and does not observe the principle of non-contradiction it is at least something objective with which to proceed towards Iraqi sovereignty and a facsimile of the rule of law. The preservation of some Kurdish autonomy is attainable the overturning of Islamic social traditions is not and the distinction between what can and can't be done is crucial. The question is now How can the Americans persuade the Shia leadership in Iraq to fight the common enemy? For the instantaneous Western-style democratization of Iraq is a fast-fading dream. The people who blew up the Shia Muslim shrines on Tuesday are the same who have been attacking American convoys and secular Iraqi police stations. And it is this core common interest in fighting the jihadists that must be pursued. That the Shia leadership under Grand Ayatollah Sistani is currently positioning itself for power after the Americans leave and has therefore become unreasonable may be taken for granted. Life is unfair. The problem with the Ashoura festival itself which could only be held openly this year thanks to the Bush administration is that it presented a security nightmare that any half-brained terrorist could exploit. And the three suicide bombers who stationed themselves around the packed Imam Musa al-Khadam shrine in Baghdad knew what they were doing. There was one at the gates for openers then one inside for the people running in then one outside for the people running out. Then grenades were tossed among the terrified survivors. Shia pilgrims had arrived in considerable numbers from Iran Pakistan the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia as well as from other parts of Iraq. Huge numbers of strangers were collected in the streets around the shrines in Karbala and in Baghdad's Khadamiya district: it was impossible to number them let alone guess which ones were wired. The Israelis can't even stop suicide bombers under everyday conditions. Unfortunately in the midst of this carnage Ayatollah Sistani decided to play more games. His spokesmen excited tensions further by blaming the U.S. for the attacks -- emotionally if not coherently. This compounded the effect of the bombings. Never expect gratitude from anyone: one negotiates over common interests alone. The emergence of majority Shia power is now inevitable. So is the continuation of the U.S. fight against the international terror networks. The jihadists of both Shia and Sunni persuasion need self-government in Iraq to fail: their own future depends on it. Their position is that any tyranny is better than none but in the long run Allah stipulates an Islamic tyranny. While tyrannical in disposition themselves the emerging Shia leadership remains anti-jihadist. It follows that the Bush administration must make a lot of concessions to remain allied with them. To put it as vulgarly as possible it doesn't matter who rules Iraq or how unWestern they are so long as we in the West know they are no threat to us and have a motive to stay on our side against the international jihadists. Alternatively we continue to strive for fairness and justice -- to impose in a couple of years on Iraq what Western societies needed centuries to accomplish. This may appeal to starry-eyed liberals in the West but is the formula for complete disaster. David Warren
© Ottawa Citizen
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