November 6, 2004
Four more years
I am not deliriously happy with the re-election of President Bush nor in a mood to gloat over it. There are too many wounds to heal. Instead I am profoundly relieved not only that George W. Bush survived the election but that it was reasonably decisive and that it's over. The greatest and most public-spirited thing John F. Kerry ever did was deliver that concession speech at Faneuil Hall on Wednesday afternoon. It was genuinely noble and he spoke the truth: America cannot afford to be so divided.
The election hamstrung the administration's efforts to respond to world developments. There is catching up to do. In very little time Mr. Bush will have to make more painfully difficult decisions to prevent Iran and North Korea from becoming full nuclear powers. I am not privy to any special information about how he proposes to do it. I cannot easily imagine how it can be done without bloodshed. But if the European and other powers fully realize what is at stake and give up on the vanity of subverting U.S. leadership it is just possible that surviving members of the "Axis of Evil" can be brought peacefully to heel till they collapse of their own inertia.
This is what President Bush attempted when he took the Iraq issue to the United Nations. The idea was that if the whole world would stare down Saddam Hussein he just might capitulate without a shot fired. But so long as Saddam was able to play France Germany and Russia against the United States and allies he could dream of an alternative to capitulation.
The same countries are as heavily invested in Iran as they were in Iraq. President Chirac of France has already signalled that he will continue to play the jerk. We may therefore witness a reprise.
But again what is there to express except utter relief that the U.S. government remains in the hands of a man who has the spine and stomach to do what must be done I pray before it is too late.
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R.I.P. Yasser Arafat. I share in the popular superstition against speaking ill of the dead or nearly dead; I would otherwise have more to say. His passing creates a wonderful opportunity for the Palestinians to disembrace Arafat's legacy of terrorism. Unfortunately it also creates the conditions for fratricidal war between factions in the West Bank and Gaza. And it removes the symbol of Palestinian nationalism clearing the field for the Jihadis.
Arafat is believed to have left between U.S. $2 and 3 billion in Swiss bank accounts which he personally sequestered from money poured into the Palestinian Authority by international agencies. While this was small compared to Saddam Hussein's profits from the United Nation's oil-for-food scam it is money without which the Palestinian Authority is reduced to destitution. Arafat used such means to bankroll a system of croneyism that gave him personal control over almost every aspect of Palestinian life. His widow may have access to the money which would make her an important player in the struggle for succession.
In his second term President Bush will be determined to achieve an Israel/Palestine breakthrough. He is sincerely committed unlike any previous President to the creation of a Palestinian state so long as its government will be transparent.
The demise of Arafat opens the box for a fresh try. Ditto Israel's wall and the removal of Israeli settlers from Gaza. A problem cannot be solved until it can be isolated and never before have the Palestinians been so isolated. The Arab world at large is sick to death of them and Arafat was the last man who could pull heartstrings in the "Arab Street".
The question the Palestinians must now answer is the old question of Golda Meir: Do you love your own children more than you hate Israel? If yes there can be peace if no there can only be annihilation. The world owes it to the Palestinian people to present this choice unambiguously. The Palestinians owe it to their children to finally get it right.
Significantly in his first remarks after re-election Mr. Bush referred listeners back to his Rose Garden speech of June 24th 2002. The media should go back and read that if they want to follow the plot. European and Arab leaders can join in the American agenda or continue to get in the way of the only peace prospect that has any chance.
As Mr. Bush reiterated in his press conference Thursday he wants: "A free Palestinian state that's at peace with Israel." What is in that statement to not understand?
David Warren
© Ottawa Citizen
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