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COMMENTARY
September 20, 2001
Musharraf's leap
The battle for Pakistan has begun. Though its consequences are unforseeable the address to his nation yesterday by President General Pervez Musharraf was the most significant development since the terrorist attack on the United States. It amounted to a reluctant declaration of war against the Islamist radical presence within his own country -- with which the general himself has flirted in the past. Musharraf said that his government would be unambigiously on the American side in the developing international conflict and would give intelligence and logistical support. By speaking so clearly before his own people he left no ambiguity in Pakistan's position before the world. His remarks took great courage. Demonstrations and riots began immmediately in Karachi and are spreading through Pakistan as I write. The loyalty to the Pakistan government of the tribal regions of Baluchistan and the North-West Frontier has come immediately into question. From the pulpits in mosques and the halls of the madrasas (Islamic schools) across Palistan we must now watch a response that may well be disconcerting. Gen. Musharraf's timing was tactical speaking Wednesday to give the ulema one full day to think before beginning Friday's weekly preaching. What the U.S. and in particular Colin Powell did to accomplish this result was itself astounding. The American secretary of state demanded that Pakistan declare itself friend or foe . He used the personal contacts that still exist between American military advisers to Pakistan from the Cold War era and their former colleagues to communicate the gravity of his request throughout the senior levels of Pakistan's military. He made them understand there could be no middle way that Pakistan's support for impending U.S. attacks on Afghanistan would have to be total; that if it wasn't Pakistan itself would become an American target. Gen. Musharraf described this "tremendous pressure" in meetings with various prominent persons before his TV address. His speech explicitly acknowledged that America's enemies were now Pakistan's enemies and that these included not only Osama bin Laden but the whole Taliban regime in Afghanistan and the rest of the international terror network. For too long Pakistan has cultivated an ambiguous position allowing money and resources to flow not only to the Taliban but to insurgents in the Indian-controlled sector of Kashmir. It has been allying itself with China and sliding gradually into opposition to the West just as India has been forging its new Western alliance. That slide was arrested yesterday. By speaking so openly the Pakistani dictator threw down the gauntlet before the Islamist radicals in Pakistan itself. The rioters in Karachi yesterday were burning both Musharraf and Bush in effigy. A large bomb was exploded in the market at Sialkot in the north. Pakistan suddenly straddles the front line of a war that has now begun and will spread inexorably to countries throughout the Middle East. It will prove a great civil war within Islam itself between religious moderates and Islamist radicals -- for everyone will eventually be compelled to take sides in this horrific struggle. Even before Gen. Musharraf spoke Islamist ulema were predicting a civil war in Pakistan and making incendiary proclamations to provoke one. We cannot be sure that Gen. Musharraf's government will survive the encounter with them; we must assume that the general himself and all senior members of his government will now be marked for assassination. We in the West must try to appreciate his courage for he has put his country's ultimate interests ahead of his personal safety. We must understand that Gen. Musharraf's Pakistan is now fighting as our proxy in the first theatre of this new and terrible war. We now owe it to him to be unstinting in our support. At the same time we must recognize the limitations on Gen. Musharraf's authority. The Americans cannot afford to be fully candid in sharing intelligence and operational plans with the Pakistan army and the ISI (the Inter-Services Intelligence organization that has been described as "Pakistan's secret government"). These are the very people who installed the Taliban regime in Kabul in 1996 from complex motives including a misplaced idealism. Individuals throughout the Pakistani hierarchy may well be double-dealing no matter what the commitment at the top. The chance that elements of the Pakistan army will sabotage future American supply lines or turn to battle against each other will always be there. It will take many months before the loyalty of all field commanders can be demonstrated. And there is the ever-present worry about the security of Pakistan's "Islamic bomb" necessarily held in a remote location. Yet the fact is after his television address we can feel confident about Gen. Musharraf himself and probably about his core supporters. It is clear that he consulted prominent interests within the country before speaking that he has already done an inventory of who is with him and who is against. The one exception is the tribal chiefs with whom he will now be dealing. He will be working on the assumption that they will try to resist; and we can assume he is taking great precautions. Lahore Pakistan is incidentally the city of my early childhood; I have followed events in Pakistan all my life. I have a terrible foreboding and expect huge destruction within Pakistan itself. But I also have a great respect for the honour of the Pakistani people and for their courage and character in this their greatest trial since the separation of Bangladesh (the former East Pakistan) in 1971. I know that the vast majority do not wish to be ruled by religious zealots and terrorists. Our prayers should be with the people of Pakistan. May they be our allies. May we be theirs. David Warren
© Ottawa Citizen
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