NEWSPAPER COLUMNS
 ¶ Most Recent
¶ Miscellany
|
COMMENTARY
September 10, 2005
Two Gulfs
Perhaps it is a myth that Karl Rove is a political genius. Every success President Bush has had in U.S. politics has been attributed to Mr. Rove, with particular warmth by Bush-bashers. Their theory seems to be, that Mr. Bush is a lucky dunce, with a backroom arranger who saves him from harm. And that this grace does not extend to efficiency in office, where the current vogue is to criticize the Bush administration for its “shambolic” responses to events.Since pundits have a knack for getting things backwards, let us entertain the opposite proposition, that Mr. Bush is actually quite smart (99th percentile, according to the tests when they let him into the military); and Mr. Rove a reasonably competent Texas backroom boy, who followed his patron slightly out of his depth to Washington. On this scheme, what keeps the presidency ticking is Mr. Bush’s own innate ability to recover from mistakes -- and I mean, political mistakes, mostly made for him -- by his unusual ability to connect with people, apply horse sense to complicated briefs, and ask “dumb questions” that get answers which smart questions would help conceal. In the crucial moments, he thinks for himself, and follows his own advice, in the face of the “experts”. The puzzle to me, when I look at American demographics and “issue” polls, is not the puzzle of the media. For them, as for John Kerry in one of his many unguarded moments, it was always, “How does this idiot keep winning?” For me, the puzzle is, how did he come close to losing that last election? There was every reason for 2000 to be close; there was no reason why Republicans should have had to bite their fingernails in ’04. I don’t even think Mr. Bush’s performance in the debates was that bad; even in the first one. It was the tactical approach that struck me as inverted, the digging a hole from which the President would have to winch himself. He did that the moment he began to ignore rehearsed talking points, and speak in his own voice. Ditto with the present Gulf crisis, in which it is now apparent that President Bush was running all over the place, in the three days before Katrina landed, to organize the federal response, while local politicians in the Democrat camp ran political interference. Mr. Bush had been criticized for taking hurricanes in Florida too personally, and playing too showy a role in recovery efforts, when, after all, natural disasters never were a federal responsibility. (See U.S. Constitution.) He was advised this time to be more laid back, so did almost everything behind the scenes. Now he has the fallout from having done it too quietly. Worse, he now has two Gulf crises. Iraq was going to be a mouthful, politically, but it had to be done, if the U.S. wasn’t going to fight the terror war entirely on the defensive. Even if the après-guerre had gone much better, it was going to cost political capital that he and the Republicans had stored up. Now, with the fairly successful media-plus-Democrat lynching over the Katrina issue, Mr. Bush finds himself a lame duck President who is politically overspent. It doesn’t matter what the facts are, as they say in politics and a few other disciplines, “perception is all”. Mr. Bush’s opponents have succeeded in creating the impression that his administration is “shambolic”, and that’s the new fact. Across the Arab and Muslim world, for those who read the websites, “Private Katrina” continues to be embraced by Islamists as a hero of the Jihad. In their view, the American paper tiger now has paws stapled down on two fronts, presenting them with fresh opportunities. If the American media can keep the Bush-bashing wave going around the stadium, maybe they can open another front, and another, until everything Mr. Bush has accomplished comes down in the wind and rain. From a Homeland Security view, the storm that hit the Mexican Gulf coast had a gilt lining. “Whatever doesn’t kill me makes me stronger,” Friedrich Nietzsche famously said, and Katrina has offered an excellent opportunity to test U.S. preparations for the big hit. They were found wanting, in many respects, but better to learn from a hurricane than from an atomic, biological, or chemical attack. However, leading America to a positive conclusion after Katrina will be a bigger test of President Bush than anything he has yet faced, in politics. And I suspect Karl Rove can be of little help. David Warren
© Ottawa Citizen
|
Top