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COMMENTARY
March 6, 2002
Eagle has landed
It is becoming a bodycount week in Israel and vicinity in India's Gujarat and in the mountains of Paktia province near Gardeyz Afghanistan. The media give us numbers every day -- the higher the more interesting from this point of view -- like a bingo parlour in which the numbers are being called randomly for different cards. (That was a 23 on Israel a nine on Afghanistan a 532 on India.) Numbers are unimportant: each death is of a unique person we cannot share it. We can only know how why what was the consequence. And it is all chance. Depending whether he detonates himself a moment too soon or the moment later a Palestinian terrorist kills just himself or dozens of women and children; and the Israeli reprisal is graduated accordingly. Depending whether a fire spreads in Ahmedabad there are thousands incinerated or just the one terrified Muslim family. Depending how the rocket launcher is held there is an empty bang or a helicopter full of dead Americans. A few metres and a few seconds made the difference between six dead at the World Trade Centre in 1993 and the one tower falling into the other with cyanide blowing through the adjacent streets; between the war on terrorism beginning then or having to wait until last fall. The numbers are unimportant the significance is in what was done and why for good or evil motive and whether it will be tried again. From this point of view the most significant casualties have been taken by the Americans in Afghanistan since Friday in their action in Paktia province where they are flushing out and destroying a large extremely motivated cell of Al Qaeda survivors. It is the first time since the war began that U.S. officers have consciously ordered their men (including a few of our Canadians) to go in where casualties are inevitable. For despite the success of the first round of fighting in Afghanistan when the Taliban regime was strafed and smart-bombed into the hills the U.S. reputation for being casualty-averse had remained intact. It has been the Americans' one remaining serious military liability. A major talking point within the Pentagon last month was a moment in the battle of Tora Bora in which it seems Osama bin Laden may have escaped. The British SAS and U.S. Delta force were reasonably sure they had him and an extensive bodyguard trapped in a mountain valley. Their officers on the ground proposed a classic manoeuvre in which their forces would divide into "beaters" and "guns". The first group force the enemy into the open the second go in for the kill. They wanted close-in air support that was apparently available but high command back in Tampa Florida decided this was all too dangerous. They would not send planes below 12 000 feet nor authorize a "cowboy" operation in which dozens of allied casualties could be easily foreseen. It was counter-proposed to use the Northern Alliance as "beaters" but the men on the ground knew they weren't up to the job. As the debate continued bin Laden and/or whoever slipped gracefully away. Never again was the obvious moral. Safe war is like safe sex it is something that doesn't happen. The best you can do is take precautions; well I won't continue the analogy. The operation in Paktia has been carefully considered. The U.S. has had at least this cell which has aggregated to a few hundred well-armed men under surveillance for more than a month. (There is some indication that several more such cells or pockets are being tracked elsewhere in the country.) There were careful preparations and new simpler ground-to-air signalling systems have been put in place to eliminate "own goals". Allied Afghan fighters have been trained and are being led not sent into battle; even so the first skirmish revealed their enduring lack of professionalism as they scattered under fire. The most dangerous part of the operation is in the hands of the U.S. 10th Mountain Division and the 101st Airborne in bitter windchill at elevations above 3 000 metres -- where the helicopters that deliver and retrieve them can carry only short loads. A couple of thousand U.S. regular army and allied soldiers from Canada and several other nations are as I understand blocking the perimeter of the battle theatre which is about the size of an old Ontario township and moving gradually towards its centre at Shah-e-Kot (a village where the outlaws' women and children are kept; yesterday the allies were four kilometres away). The Pakistani army is also co-operating as never before with a large contingent along the nearby border plugging all the high passes this time in their new American parkas. It would seem that except for the loss of a helicopter and most aboard and a couple of smaller misfortunes the mission is unfolding as it should. Perhaps half of the enemy have been killed and several dozen Chechens among the enemy have surrendered. For the first time in Afghanistan a thermobaric or "fuel air" explosive has been used on a large cave complex: another taboo broken. The "Big Blue Two" -- it explodes in two stages -- could be plausibly described as a weapon of mass destruction. It sends an irresistible fireball through all man-made obstacles down every passageway. Why such a device was not used at Tora Bora is still a slight mystery. The best explanation seems to be that it prevents later forensic investigators from determining who was killed. It is the first of what will be many many such ground and underground encounters in Afghanistan and beyond. The Americans hesitated before beginning to get the lay of the land. Their continuing caution is displayed in the fact that they have not tried to hit simultaneously against the several other suspected largish enemy cells despite the risk that these others will learn from the international media enough to adjust tactics. But the U.S. for its part is learning quickly how to think its way into the enemy mind. The Bush administration despite its present European reputation thinks economically and is unlikely to take any decision from a single motive. In this case the several motives being served are these: 1. To convey to the world generally alike to friend and foe that U.S. forces are not exclusively high-tech and prissy; and cancel the observation that in the words of Marine Lt. Gen. Bernard Trainor Americans can only fight from 35,000 feet. The correct inference is instead that the U.S. will not take casualties just to be macho; but will risk them when the object requires. 2. To begin the serious training of the new Afghan army which if it is to hold the country after the U.S. leaves must learn the Western art of war. 3. To demonstrate to anti-American warlords within Afghanistan other than those formerly associated with the Taliban that the U.S. is not impressed and will not accommodate them. (Prior to the commencement of the operation it was evident that a large part of the local population in Paktia preferred to co-operate with the other side; and in fact the Toronto Star's wounded reporter Kathleen Kenna was not a victim of Al Qaeda or Taliban but it would seem of angry locals in collusion with them acting impulsively.) 4. To build on the repertoire of Afghan battlefield tactics and extend them into new crevices of intimacy; with broad implications for future operations in places like Iraq. Ah yes and 5. To kill or capture any ranking members of Al Qaeda hiding in the Gardeyz area and prevent the rest from ever regrouping. David Warren
© Ottawa Citizen
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