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COMMENTARY
April 2, 2002
A bigger bucket
What is Israel trying to accomplish in its latest incursion into the West Bank and Gaza? At first sight it seems merely a resumption of the bailing operation that was interrupted in deference to the third "peace process" mission of Ret. Marine Gen. Anthony Zinni. The Israeli ship is filling with water in the form of constant suicide bombings destroying public morale the sense of security and even the national economy. The scheme is to eliminate terrorists faster than they can come at you -- to bail the water faster than it is entering the ship. It is one way to stay afloat and not to be despised when there is no alternative. A closer look reveals larger but still limited ambitions. "Operation Root Treatment" the last round of incursions aimed at clearing terrorist operations including bomb and rocket factories out of sanctuaries in the Palestinian refugee camps. It is succeeded by an operation that has gone straight to Ramallah and whose purpose is almost certainly to wreck the whole infrastructure of Yasser Arafat's Palestinian Authority. That the whole of the PA is now a terrorist front no less than say Hezbollah almost goes without saying. (It runs schools and hospitals but then so does Hezbollah.) Consider for instance the list of weapons the IDF were able to confiscate from Mr. Arafat's "civil government" compound when they took most of it over. These included not only dozens of Kalashnikov rifles and "micros" and other assault rifles but Barretas and Norwegian sniper weapons. There were extensive stores of bombs mortars and their launchers fragmentation and smoke grenades crates of machine-gun and pistol magazines commando knives telescopic sights night-vision devices bulletproof and combat vests. About 500 Palestinian men were arrested in and around Mr. Arafat's compound dozens of whom were on Israel's lists of wanted terrorists. European "peace activists" were used as a front by the Palestinians in a clever operation to smuggle several of the most-wanted terrorists who had retreated to Mr. Arafat's office. They surprised the Israelis on their way in but on their way out IDF soldiers surrounded them and detached and grabbed their suspects. These may have included the murderers of the Israeli tourism minister Rehavam Zeevi. Under the Madrid/Oslo "peace process" Mr. Arafat agreed in return for being allowed to return to the West Bank and Gaza to limit armaments in Palestinian administered territories to side-arms and standard equipment required by police. He undertook not only to prevent violent attacks on Israel and Israelis but to adopt a pacific tone and of course disavow terrorism. The pretense that he has done anything other than fuel and incite violence since the moment he arrived is no longer sustainable. Explosives of the very kind used by Palestinian suicide bombers have been found in Palestinian Administration police caches all over the territories. And Mr. Arafat's constant rhetorical celebration of the cult of "martyrdom" and other forms of homicide is now a matter of public record. His game is up. Most significant is the intelligence haul from Mr. Arafat's compound. The IDF soldiers have been at pains to secure and remove files documents and communications records; the mission to Ramallah was in some sense planned like the commando raid on the Karine A in the Red Sea in January. There is presently a large traffic of intelligence "content" between the Israeli government and the CIA Pentagon State Department and White House in Washington. Connexions between the Palestinian Authority and international Islamist terror organizations including Al Qaeda are being established chapter and verse. It is this intelligence haul that will keep the operation going. It is in effect Prime Minister Sharon's repayment to President George Bush for understanding as Israel proceeds with -- judging from the reported call-up of some 31 000 reserves -- its largest single military operation since the invasion of Lebanon in 1982. On this scale it must be assumed that the IDF will go through the entire West Bank and Gaza rounding up suspects weapons and documents in the most thorough clean-out of terrorist nests yet attempted. The Israeli air force has not been used this time in the Palestinian territories but there have been more than a dozen bombing and strafing runs against Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon in response to an increase in mortar attacks across Israel's northern frontier (timed to coincide with the escalation of suicide bombings). These still amount to warning shots but if trouble persists in Israel's north I would expect the air strikes on Lebanese positions and potentially even on Syrian ones to expand dramatically. The flip side of Mr. Sharon's understanding with Mr. Bush is a time constraint. The Israelis must work quickly and try to conclude their operation in May for the U.S. should be in a position to strike against Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq by early June and won't need the complication. I believe both U.S. and Israel are presently negotiating with Morocco for a place to send Yasser Arafat (other than to hell). The Bush administration has after Vice President Dick Cheney was effectively spat in the face by Mr. Arafat upon offering to meet him in Cairo finally written Mr. Arafat off. The problem now is what to do with him that will cause the least excitement in the Arab world and what kind of self-administration can be established by the Palestinians once he is gone. Will the Israeli operation succeed? The short answer is no. The new mission title Operation Defensive Wall is a misnomer. There is no indication that the Sharon government is yet seriously considering the kind of Berlin Wall that would have to be erected between Israelis and Palestinians to put a permanent stop to suicide bombers. The reality is that the two societies though separated neighbourhood from neighbourhood co-exist and mix in everyday life on either side of the Green Line (Israel's borders before the Six Day War in 1967). Some 1.2 million Arab Muslims live on the Israeli side of this line and 400 000 Israeli Jews on the other. And the bombing in Haifa on Sunday helped display the scale of the problem. Haifa the seat of Israeli pacifism was the one city where Jews and Arabs had until recently co-existed in peace. This ended months ago with a bus bombing. Sunday's bomber was an Arab Israeli citizen; the restaurant named "Matza" was likewise owned by an Israeli Arab; the clientele were mostly Jewish. It was part of a campaign within the campaign of suicide bombings: the Palestinian militias doing everything in their power to recruit Israeli Arabs and to strike in ways that will polarize the two communities. The intention is to force Israel to turn against its native Arab population in the hope of further radicalizing that community and ultimately creating a fresh refugee crisis. The hard truth is that a real "defensive wall" would not begin to work before a Balkan-style exchange of populations. Any Jewish settlements outside the "defensive wall" would have to be withdrawn and Israel would have to begin evicting the "fifth column" that has been forming within. The economic ramifications are equally huge to both sides. For the Palestinians it would mean almost total unemployment and the loss of most of the existing food supply. For the Israelis it would mean a major retrenchment and economic transformation. Before anything on that scale is contemplated the Israelis will wait and see what comes of the U.S. mission to Iraq. Like the Gulf War of 1991 this will change the situation on the ground throughout the region. Meanwhile they continue bailing but with a bigger bucket. David Warren
© Ottawa Citizen
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