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COMMENTARY
May 15, 2002
Bush's league
Under cover of war-mongering the U.S. president George W. Bush is making remarkable gains in pure diplomacy. Yesterday and the day before the U.S. sealed a new missile pact with the Russians in a comprehensive undertaking that will move the latter into formal association with NATO. And under acute American pressure the U.N. Security Council voted unanimously to approve a new sanctions regime for the Iraqis that will speed the flow of food medicine and other harmless supplies (in exchange for Iraqi petrodollars) while putting the full mass of a U.S.-directed bureaucracy in the way of "dual-use" things like trucks and computers. Direct arms shipments continue to be banned and a little more muscle will be used to enforce this. Since their meeting at Crawford Texas the president and the Saudi crown prince Abdullah have found themselves working constructively together. It is Mr. Bush's agenda and it consists of putting so much pressure on one Yasser Arafat (the Palestinian's perpetual crown prince) that he cracks. Over the weekend at Sharm el Sheik the leaders of Saudi Arabia Syria and Egypt met to discuss their side of a new bargain which President Bush is determined to see honoured. The Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak has now sent a delegation to Mr. Arafat's (rather untidy) headquarters in Ramallah to say that the Palestinian Authority will be cleaned up and that the suicide bombings and sniper attacks against Israeli civilians and military will come to an end. This is the first time in the history of the world that Mr. Arafat has been told anything of the kind by a nominal ally. And the Syrians -- whose sobriety since they were visited by Colin Powell U.S. secretary of state some weeks ago -- are notable for their inclusion on this short list of well-wishers. The Assad regime of Syria is desperately trying to disengage from what the U.S. defines as an "axis of evil"; so far as I can see from sheer petrifaction. They are also leaning heavily upon Hezbollah elements in southern Lebanon to just cut it out (lobbing Katyushas in the general direction of Israeli kibbutzim). In Crawford Mr. Bush apparently told Prince Abdullah that I take you at your word that you are prepared to recognize and sponsor peace with Israel, and I am committing the prestige of the United States to this task. I don't have to tell you what the consequences would be if we fail. (That is far worse for Prince Abdullah.) At many other levels the Bush administration is engaging the self-interest of the "moderate" Arab regimes in working towards some eventual peace agreement. That such a thing is utterly unobtainable so long as the Palestinians embrace terrorism is something they've been made to understand. For his part Ariel Sharon the Israeli prime minister agreed to call off a massive incursion into the Gaza Strip to avenge last week's terror attack on Rishon Letzion and is treading water with police actions against minor targets only in the West Bank. He too is in the script and must carry along an Israeli electorate that isn't overmuch concerned with peace at this very moment. On the weekend Binyamin Netanyahu the once prime minister -- and future if God is frowning on Israel -- exploited the situation to advance his purely personal ambition (which is to replace Mr. Sharon as the Likud party's prime ministerial candidate in the next election). He orchestrated a vote by the party delegates to disavow their promise to recognize eventually a Palestinian state. Several years ago writing from Israel/Palestine in this newspaper I gave it as my opinion that Binyamin Netanyahu then prime minister was at that time Israel's worst enemy (a service Mr. Arafat was then as now providing for the Palestinians). It does not surprise me that at a moment of national crisis when it is imperative that everyone stand together he should try to cut the legs out from under the man who is not only his party leader but the serving prime minister. Mr. Netanyahu is worshipped by the right in both Israel and the U.S. He has charm eloquence charisma. He is a man who fails to notice roadsigns such as: "The Bridge Is Out Today" (the U.S. being the bridge in this analogy). He is a demagogue. He loves the sound of his own voice. He has no principles having once before won an election on the recognition issue then changed his tune. Mr. Sharon is liked even by many of his enemies Mr. Netanyahu is distrusted especially by his friends. The people who love Mr. Netanyahu are the people at a distance. Yankees love him because they aren't there. Voters love him when he weaves a spell. And his mouth is the kind of hose even people who despise him think they can turn on their personal enemies so they pretend to love him. President Bush should be told but will know instinctively that you can talk to Mr. Sharon even off the record but you must manipulate Mr. Netanyahu. However under the Israeli constitution a prime minister is separately elected and Mr. Sharon is under no obligation to obey the rednecks in his own party. Having now occupied the centre of the Israeli political ground he is in a position by tacking left or right as the breeze requires to stay afloat until October 2003. If he is clever which he isn't always he will use the event to hang Mr. Netanyahu out to dry; and the threat of the mad dogs behind him to improve his negotiating position with White House and Arabs alike. Mr. Sharon has proved remarkably astute in his dealings with Mr. Arafat. The Palestinian Authority chairman is now forlornly touring the West Bank (not daring to visit Gaza) in a helicopter lent by the Jordanians. Very small crowds have turned out to see him and at the last moment he gave Jenin a miss for fear he would be booed. The Palestinians themselves -- the people -- are perforce divided in two camps. On one side are those who would hang with Hamas and the terrorists. To them every concession that Mr. Arafat now makes will further undo him. On the other are those who are sick and tired not only of violence but of Mr. Arafat's corruption. Yesterday at a meeting of Mr. Arafat's Fatah party the first nail went into his coffin. A document was presented that specifies "fundamental reforms" for the movement. This will progress towards the Palestinian Legislative Council. It would transfer most of Mr. Arafat's power to a new post equivalent to prime minister. In particular the Palestinian security services would report to the Council through this new figure. According to Hatam Al Kader Eid a Palestinian legislator from East Jerusalem quoted in the London Arab daily Al Hayat a meeting with Mr. Arafat to discuss the document is now being arranged. The last time one of his henchmen questioned his authority Mr. Arafat personally pistol-whipped the man. Let's see what he does this time. David Warren
© Ottawa Citizen
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